Goals are lagging indicators. They tell you what happened. Shots on target tell you what's about to happen.
That's the fundamental insight driving modern football analytics � and it's why the smartest money in the anytime scorer market isn't following last game's goalscorer. It's following the player whose shot data says the next goal is coming.
Here's what the 2025/26 Premier League shot data actually shows.
The Shot Volume Hierarchy
Across all tracked appearances this season, here's how the division's top attacking players rank by average shots per game:
| # | Player | Games | Avg Shots/Game | Avg SOT/Game | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | E. Haaland | 27 | 2.96 | 1.78 | 22 |
| 2 | B. Mbeumo | 22 | 2.23 | 1.32 | 9 |
| 3 | J. Mateta | 23 | 2.04 | 1.13 | 8 |
| 4 | H. Ekitike | 24 | 1.88 | 0.75 | 10 |
| 5 | D. Calvert-Lewin | 24 | 1.83 | 0.96 | 10 |
| 6 | B. �e�ko | 22 | 1.82 | 1.09 | 7 |
The interesting name in that table isn't Haaland � his dominance is expected. It's Bryan Mbeumo.
The Mbeumo Case
2.23 shots per game, 1.32 on target, 9 goals in 22 appearances.
That shot volume is remarkable for a player who isn't a traditional centre-forward. Mbeumo operates predominantly from the right channel, cutting inside to access shooting positions � and he finds them at a rate that places him comfortably second in the division among tracked attackers.
Nine goals from that volume represents a conversion rate of roughly 18.4%. His shots-on-target accuracy is 59% � meaning three of every five shots is finding the keeper. The goals will come. If anything, 9 from this sample slightly underrepresents his creation rate.
The market hasn't fully caught up. Mbeumo in the "anytime scorer" market frequently drifts to prices implying 20-25% probability in home fixtures. His shot rate alone justifies a closer look.
The "SOT per Game" Filter
Here's a simple filtering rule: for betting anytime scorer, target players averaging 1.0+ shots on target per game.
From our data, that shortlist contains:
- Haaland (1.78)
- Mbeumo (1.32)
- Mateta (1.13)
- �e�ko (1.09)
- Ekitike (0.75 � approaching threshold)
- Calvert-Lewin (0.96 � approaching threshold)
These are the players whose shot quality is consistently high enough that goal involvement is a realistic proposition in any given 90 minutes. Everything below 0.75 becomes too match-dependent to price confidently.
What Shot Volume Doesn't Tell You
Volume isn't everything. Ekitike has 10 goals from a lower SOT average than Mbeumo � the difference is finishing efficiency. He's converting at approximately 22%, above the expected rate for his shot quality. That level of overperformance tends to regress.
Calvert-Lewin also has 10 goals from 1.83 shots per game � more efficient than his volume suggests, which points to a player making better decisions about when to shoot rather than shooting frequently. Quality over quantity.
The player to watch for second-half-season bets: �e�ko at 1.82 shots per game with 7 goals. His conversion rate (17.5%) is slightly below expectation for his shot types, meaning the goals should be catching up to the volume in the coming weeks.
How to Use This in Practice
- Filter for SOT = 1.0/game. This removes luck from the equation.
- Check opponent defensive quality. Shot volume against teams conceding 14+ shots per game is worth double credit.
- Track recent run. A player at steady volume who hasn't scored in 4+ games is statistically likely to convert in the near term � the numbers aren't lying, the luck just hasn't turned yet.
Our Match Cheat Sheets display per-player shot averages alongside the current fixture. Use them.
Conclusion
The anytime scorer market rewards patience and data literacy. Mbeumo generating 2.23 shots per game on average isn't a guess � it's a documented pattern across 22 appearances. Act accordingly.
Track live shot rates for every player at FootballStatSheets.com.