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Accuracy Tracking

At Football Stat Sheets, we don't hide our losses. Our goal is to provide a transparent, data-driven tool for bettors. This page tracks our model's performance across all major leagues.

74.2%
Win/Draw Coverage
68.5%
Over 1.5 Goals
61.0%
Player SOT
59.4%
Card Volatility

Calibration & Methodology

Our model is calibrated weekly against actual match outcomes. If we notice a deviation in specific leagues or markets, our algorithm weights are adjusted to reflect current trends.

We use a Brier Score to measure the accuracy of our probabilistic predictions. The lower the score, the more calibrated the model is to reality. Our current rolling average Brier Score for the 2025/26 season is 0.18.

League Performance

Our highest accuracy currently resides in the Premier League and Bundesliga, where data availability is highest. We are continuously expanding our data depth for the Championship and secondary European leagues.